2026 NBA MVP Odds, Favorites & Prediction: SGA Sizzles in Return

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back and better than ever.

The reigning NBA MVP has registered back-to-back 30+ point outings after sitting out nine games with an abdominal strain. His sparkling return-to-form has caused his odds to move from -140 during the height of his injury to -260 today.

Let's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below as SGA and the Thunder enter the league's stretch drive.

🏀2026 NBA MVP odds

Team		Movement
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-260	▲
Nikola Jokic	+450	▼
Cade Cunningham	+650	▼
Victor Wembanyama	+1800	--
Jaylen Brown	+2500	--
Luka Doncic	+7500	▼
Donovan Mitchell	+20000	▼
Anthony Edwards	+25000	--
Jalen Brunson	+50000	--
Tyrese Maxey	+50000	--

Odds from bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's return had an immediate impact on the Top 3 this past week as Nikola Jokic's odds lengthened from +275 to +450 and Cade Cunningham moved from +500 to +650.

However, it's worth keeping an eye on the Pistons point guard as he would be the main beneficiary if SGA and Jokic miss any additional time and fail to appear in the 65 games necessary to qualify for NBA MVP consideration.

NBA MVP prediction

Bet	Odds	Bet Date	Units
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+175	Oct. 28	1.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+150	Dec. 1	1.0
Nikola Jokic	+300	Feb. 25	0.5

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama as he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Doncic has put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower, especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

My late February wager on Nikola Jokic is a value play as he's simply too good to ignore at plus odds. The issue with Joker is that he must play at least 65 games to qualify for the award, so any additional missed time could kill his candidacy.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Nikola Jokic head-to-head

Player	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK
SGA	31.8	4.4	6.4	1.4	0.8
Jokic	28.7	12.6	10.3	1.3	0.8

It seems only fitting we have a two-horse race given Jokic's love for all things equine. Voters will have to ask themselves whether they prefer SGA's scoring and the Thunder's superior record or Jokic's overall brilliance and ability to stuff a box score.

📈 NBA odds over time

This year's MVP chase has been a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
Nikola Jokic +350
Luka Doncic +380
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
Victor Wembanyama +1200
Anthony Edwards +2500
Kevin Durant +5000
Cade Cunningham +6000
Jalen Brunson +8000
Donovan Mitchell +10000
Paolo Banchero +10000
Trae Young +15000

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

Highest ticket percentage: Cade Cunningham 24.6%
Highest handle percentage: Cade Cunningham 19.3%
Biggest liability: Cade Cunningham
Odds leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -250

Popular NBA awards odds

How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

1st place vote: 10 points
2nd place: 7 points
3rd place: 5 points
4th place: 3 points
5th place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

“Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season	Player	Opening Odds	Team
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+400	Thunder
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	+450	Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	+600	76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	+1600	Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	+2500	Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+210	Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+475	Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	+1100	Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	+200	OThunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	+650	Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	+1600	Warriors